With the domestic spot market price of copper twice in the 48,000 yuan / ton in the vicinity suffered physical buying support, as well as short profit taking, copper futures faint out double bottom pattern. Analysis shows that in the second half of the cities of Shanghai and London copper prices overall weakness, below the macro and fundamentals will likely further under the double blow of dropping $ 6,000 / ton low. But there is a rebound in the third quarter, increasing the probability and the topside resistance upwards to $ 7,500 / ton. At the same time, the two cities prices are likely because the yuan and the U.S. dollar exchange rate changes in polarization, LME copper or longer than SHFE copper prices.
Dominant factor in the price of copper in the first half only two and a half, one of China's economic slowdown caused by pessimism; Second, the U.S. economic upturn brought early exit Fed QE expectations; and half the outbreak of the eurozone crisis in the region from time to time, such as three , April bailout led by the Cyprus events. Changes in the second half of the stock market, the three lines will still be as dominant, but their weight may be certain changes.
Macro perspective, the Chinese, the Chinese official attitude once again clearly "China's economic growth target of 6.5%, or 7% is not a big problem"; same time, because the appreciation of the renminbi relative pressure has not decreased, the second half of China's exports are expected will be difficult to have a new breakthrough. However, downside risks to the economy is expected to increase the market to stimulate the introduction of a good or beneficial.
United States, July 10, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke significant improvement in the job market data in the context of published unexpectedly dovish remarks that "in the foreseeable future still requires a high degree of easing, the unemployment rate of 6.5% threshold does not trigger a rate hike, "which helps to slow the market panic, until September before the next meeting on interest rates. Grant funds to do more substantive support. However, we should also see that on the one hand, despite the U.S. debt ceiling crisis may come back again in September after. But the United States in June fiscal surplus reached 116.5 billion U.S. dollars, for the past five years in June for the first time monthly budget surpluses. It is worth noting that, as the initiator of the 2008 financial crisis has submitted two rooms $ 67 billion dividend to help finance further improvement in the U.S.. Haitong Futures Institute based model analysis, the U.S. budget deficit is the trend of improvement, which will give more room for maneuver with the White House. On the other hand, the United States in June PPI MoM growth of 0.8%, an increase of 2.5%, indicating that U.S. companies already have a good business environment changes. PPI rebound will eventually transfer to the CPI, will be limiting the Fed's monetary policy space.
In the euro area, June PMI data show dawn, but the unemployment rate inflection point seems there is a period of time. And Fitch recently announced that the French credit rating from "AAA" down to "AA +", rating outlook is stable. While reaffirming the French term foreign currency IDR to "F1 +", national credit limit rating remains "AAA". This means that the French lost the last one of the major rating agencies AAA rating. Although the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi tried to comfort the market, but before the German elections in September, the ECB is difficult to introduce more aggressive monetary policy measures. Even Merkel won the election, it is impossible to spread the ECB and the Fed's long-term sustainability in the unbalanced position. Therefore, the problem of the euro area and the United States is more complex than the Chinese, in addition to the region's major economies themselves facing difficulties, Southern economy has been in a financial environment state of tension.
Overall, the global macroeconomic situation in the second half to reduce the uncertainty. Sino-US positive support increased, but the euro zone is still possible outbreak of local risks weighed on the market risk appetite. In the second half, the two cities Shanghai and London copper prices are still at a disadvantage, with the bottom of the macro fundamentals will likely further under the double blow of dropping $ 6,000 / ton low. But US negative factors will weaken in the third quarter, so there is a rebound in the third quarter copper probability of increasing topside resistance upwards to $ 7,500 / ton.